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Archive for August 6th, 2008

AP Poll: Obama Leads By Six Points

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:42 am by HL

AP Poll: Obama Leads By Six Points
A new AP/Ipsos poll shows Sen. Barack Obama is ahead of Sen. John McCain by six points nationally, 47% to 41%.

Key findings: McCain is leading by 10 points among whites and is even with Obama among men, groups with whom Republicans traditionally do well in national elections. Obama leads by 13 points among women, by 30 points among voters up to age 34, and by 55 points among blacks, Hispanics and other minorities.


Joe Lieberman’s Toilet Radio Interview (Audio)

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:41 am by HL

Joe Lieberman’s Toilet Radio Interview (Audio)
Gives a whole new meaning to the term “sitting Senator.” (video by CTBob)

“Brutal Islamist extremist terrorists….”

[flush]

Gives a whole new meaning to the term “sitting Senator.”

(video by CTBob)


Morning Thread

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:39 am by HL

Morning Thread
Help yourself to espresso and croissants.


Drop in U.S. Casualties Coincides with Surge in Iraqi Deaths

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:38 am by HL

Drop in U.S. Casualties Coincides with Surge in Iraqi Deaths
The U.S. relies on its own security parameters to judge its performance in Iraq. This does not include Iraqi casualties.


Study: McCain Finally Getting Media Coverage Equal To Obama

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:37 am by HL

Study: McCain Finally Getting Media Coverage Equal To Obama
It looks like McCain’s recent attacks on Obama are working, in the sense that the McCain campaign is now getting as much media coverage as Obama, according to a new study from the Project for Excellence in Journalism: For the…


Obama signs up lawyers to combat GOP voter

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:36 am by HL


Obama signs up lawyers to combat GOP voter suppression tricks….


Is Obama Underperforming?

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:35 am by HL

Is Obama Underperforming?

Pundits from Bob Novak to Paul Krugman have argued that Sen. Barack Obama is underperforming because his lead of about 5 to 7 points lags behind how a “generic” Democrat fares in congressional election polls, leads ranging from 10 to 18 points.

But looking at the leads can be misleading.

Look at the levels of support
in generic congressional ballots:

AP-Ipsos
Dem: 53%
GOP: 35%

Research 2000
Dem: 51%
GOP: 37%

NBC/WSJ
Dem: 49%
GOP: 36%

Pew
Dem: 52%
GOP: 37%

ABC/W. Post
Dem: 53%
GOP: 38%

CNN
Dem: 54%
GOP: 44%

The generic Democratic candidate generally polls in the lower 50s, the generic Republican generally polls in the upper 30s, with a bunch of undecideds left over.

I would not expect the generic Democrat to pick up much more from that pool of undecideds, which probably contain a lot of disaffected conservatives and conservative-leaning independents sitting on their hands. (Democrats won 53.6% of the vote in 2006 when they took back the House, already a pretty strong number historically.)

Obama performs a little bit under that. The most recent polls from CNN, Pew and AP-Ipsos have him at 51%, 47% and 47%.

(A Zogby poll has Obama at 41%, slightly trailing McCain by 1, but that would appear to be an outlier, and one where McCain still languishes at 42%.)

But the difference between Obama’s high 40s and generic Dem’s low 50s is not as stark a gap as the contrast between a 6 point presidential lead to a (probably overstated) 15-point generic Dem congressional lead would appear to be.

Furthermore, does even that small gap speak to any flaws specific to Obama?

Nate Silver argues that Dem voter loyalty to presidential candidates has always been soft.

As the front-runner, Obama faces a daily barrage of attacks that a generic Democratic does not, swing doubt that keeps some folks on the fence. Anyone else in his place would also likely trail a generic placeholder by at least a similar amount.

And McCain is a candidate who has long polled well with independents, allowing him to outperform a generic Republican — also something that would be the case regardless of Dem nominee.

Meanwhile, McCain still can’t crack 45% in nearly every poll, and he’s caught in a bind: trying to consolidate the conservative base and appeal to independents at the same time.

Childish attacks against Obama can get McCain out of the 30s and into the 40s by consolidating conservatives, but they can’t get him the independents needed to get in spitting distance of 50%.

The bottom line is as it was: Obama is in a good position, but there remains a pool of undecideds around 10% of the electorate — many of whom are disengaged voters that won’t choose until late — that can’t be taken for granted.


Singer: Obama ‘acts’ white

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:34 am by HL

Singer: Obama ‘acts’ white
Singer: Obama ‘acts’ white

Son humiliates GOP hopeful
The son of Colorado GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer is causing his dad a little embarrassment on the campaign trail this week. Nineteen-year-old Justin Schaffer publicly apologized for putting up posters on his Facebook page including one declaring “Slavery Gets **** Done.”


Army offering six-figure bonuses for Arabic speakers, after kicking out dozens under DADT.

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:33 am by HL

Army offering six-figure bonuses for Arabic speakers, after kicking out dozens under DADT.
The Christian Science Monitor reports today that the Army may begin paying retention bonuses worth as much as $150,000 to Arabic-speaking soldiers, “in reflection of how critical it has become for the US military to retain native language and cultural know-how in its ranks.” Yet as Steve Ralls points out, the Army is “taking almost […]

The Christian Science Monitor reports today that the Army may begin paying retention bonuses worth as much as $150,000 to Arabic-speaking soldiers, “in reflection of how critical it has become for the US military to retain native language and cultural know-how in its ranks.” Yet as Steve Ralls points out, the Army is “taking almost every step imaginable” to keep Arabic speakers except rescinding the Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy, which resulted in the expulsion of dozens of Arabic speakers and translators. A GAO report found that between 1998 and 2003, more than 60 linguists specializing in Arabic or Farsi were expelled from the military for being gay.

Digg It!


Pro- and Anti-Bush Rallies Mark President’s Visit to S. Korea

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on August 6th, 2008 4:32 am by HL

Pro- and Anti-Bush Rallies Mark President’s Visit to S. Korea
SEOUL, Aug. 6 — As President Bush rode a motorcade out of Seoul air base on Tuesday night, he was greeted by hundreds of people waving South Korean and American flags and signs announcing “Friends Forever.” But in downtown parts of the capital, anti-Bush protests drew thousands of marchers, and…