In Vote, Watch the Intensity Factor
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on November 4th, 2009 5:32 am by HL
In Vote, Watch the Intensity Factor
Gerald Seib, Wall Street Journal
Polls can measure many things, but one thing they have a hard time getting at is intensity: Yes, people will tell a pollster whom they prefer in a campaign, but do they feel so strongly about their choice that they'll actually go out to vote?Only elections can answer the intensity question, which is the most important factor in Tuesday's off-year governor's elections in New Jersey and Virginia and, increasingly, a special election in a New York congressional district. Intensity, as much as outcomes, may provide the best insight into national trends heading into the much more…
One Year Later, Big Test For Big Government
Howard Fineman, MSNBC
In a time of economic uncertainty and fear, that is the core question implicit “" and sometimes explicit “" on Election Day 2009.After a year of sweeping, even breathtaking governmental action to revive the economy “" bailouts, stimulus packages, new regulations and trillions of newly printed dollars and debt “" is the country really better off and on the road to recovery? The answer that Obama and the Democrats will hear tonight is likely to be a loud “we're not sure.”� Not that the Republicans should gloat; voters…
Angela Merkel’s Quiet Revolution
Anne Applebaum, Slate
Angela Merkel Did you know that there were German elections in late September? Were you aware that the German socialists were soundly defeated? Had you realized that there was now a new government in Germany? No? Then give the credit"”for both the victory and the fact that you haven't heard about it"”to Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor. And even if you did know all of that, you might as well cheer anyway, because Merkel's achievement is far greater than it seems. She is a soft-spoken, even-tempered, and frankly dull pragmatist who has…
NY-23 Highlights Our Weak Political Parties
Jay Cost, RealClearPolitics
With all the twists and turns in the race for New York's 23rd Congressional District, it seems like it should mean something, right? You don't have all this drama without some higher purpose, or so the thinking goes. Predictably, pundits have been working overtime to explain the point of this soap opera in Watertown. For what it's worth, I do not think that a special election – any special election – is a particularly good barometer of the political climate of any place outside the district in question. Factor in low turnout, and sometimes it is hard to argue that…
What to Watch in NY-23
Timothy Meyer, RealClearPolitics
After a series of twists and turns that included the appointment of former Republican Congressman John McHugh as Secretary of the Army, the rise of Conservative Doug Hoffman and early Republican frontrunner Dede Scozzafava suspending her campaign this past weekend to endorse Democrat Bill Owens, the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District is finally here. And while the conventional storyline in this race has changed so many times a final result is nearly unpredictable, there will be some hints to watch for as results roll in later tonight.The 23rd district contains all…
