Birbirinden ateşli özbek sex videolarına hemen sizde izlemeye başlayın. Yeni fantazi olan eşli seks ile ilgili içeriklerimiz ilginizi çekebilir. Çeşitli sekreter türk içerikleri son derece heyecanlandırıcı ve zevk verici duruyor. İnternet ortamında güvenilir bir depolama sistemi olan dosya yükle adresimiz sizleri için sorunsuz bir şekilde aktif durumda. Hiç bir bilsiyar keysiz kalmasın diye özel bir indirim Windows 10 Pro Lisans Key Satın Al kampanyasına mutlaka göz atın. Android cihazlarda Dream League Soccer 2020 hileli apk ile beraber sizler de sınırsız oyun keyfine hemen dahil olun. Popüler oyun olan Clash Royale apk indir ile tüm bombaları ücretsiz erişim imkanını kaçırmayın. Sosyal medya üzerinden facebook beğenisi satın al adresi sizlere büyük bir popülerlik katmanıza imkan sağlamaktadır. Erotik kadınlardan oluşan canlı sex numaraları sizlere eğlenceye davet ediyor. Bağlantı sağladığınız bayanlara sex sohbet etmekte dilediğiniz gibi özgürsünüz. Dilediğiniz zaman arayabileceğiniz sex telefon numaraları ile zevkin doruklarına çıkın. Kadınların birbirleri ile yarış yaptığı canlı sohbet hattı hizmeti sayesinde fantazi dünyanız büyük ölçüde gelişecek. Sizlerde hemen bir tık uzağınızda olan sex hattı hizmetine başvurarak arama yapmaya başlayın. İnternet ortamında bulamayacağınız kadın telefon numaraları sitemiz üzerinden hemen erişime bağlı bir şekilde ulaşın. Whatsapp üzerinden sıcak sohbetler için whatsapp sex hattı ile bayanların sohbetine katılabilirsin. Erotik telefonda sohbet ile sitemizde ki beğendiğiniz kadına hemen ulaşın. Alo Sex Numaraları kadınlarına ücretsiz bir şekilde bağlan!
supertotobet superbetin marsbahis kolaybet interbahis online casino siteleri bonus veren siteler
We are the Liberal Blog From Hollywood
L.A.'s Premier Post Facility

Film / Movie Quality Control Reports

Hot Pics & Gossip.

Archive for December 1st, 2008

The Tattlesnake – Post-It Notes From the Underground Edition

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 1st, 2008 5:38 am by HL

The Tattlesnake – Post-It Notes From the Underground Edition
Riff, Raff and Other Chaff “For your information, I would like to ask a question.” – Samuel Goldwyn Worried about Obama’s experience as a leader? He just ran an organization for two years that had outlets in all fifty states, took in over $600 million dollars, and successfully completed its goal, against long odds. Compare his performance […]

Clinton Clears Path for Wife’s Appointment

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 1st, 2008 5:37 am by HL

Clinton Clears Path for Wife’s Appointment
Former President Bill Clinton “has agreed to disclose publicly the names of more than 200,000 donors to his foundation as part of an accord with President-elect Barack Obama that clears the way for Senator Hillary Clinton to become secretary of state,” the New York Times reports.

“The disclosure of contributors is among nine conditions that Mr. Clinton signed off on during discussions with representatives of Mr. Obama; all go beyond the requirements of law.”

“Mr. Clinton also agreed to submit his future personal speeches and business activities for review by State Department ethics officials and, if necessary, by the White House counsel’s office.”

Swap Defaults: The Next Installment of the Financial Crisis

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 1st, 2008 5:36 am by HL

Swap Defaults: The Next Installment of the Financial Crisis
No one wants to talk about what will happen when our Wall Street Masters of the Universe can’t pay off on their massive gambling debts in the derivatives markets. It looks like this really serious problem is just one more can being kicked down the road to the Obama administration. Is anyone ready to think about it yet?


What will happen if the derivative markets collapse? This is the question we don’t seem to be asking in public. Maybe the answer is too scary. Take a deep breath and read this (thanks a lot, EW).

Remember the basics about credit default swaps. One side buys protection against loss on debt issued by a specified company or nation from the other. The buyer doesn’t even have to own the debt. It just pays a premium based on “market” assessment of risk. The seller gets the premium, and promises to pay the difference between the face value of the debt and the value at the date of a credit event, like bankruptcy or failure to make payments.

Take another deep breath. The ISDA gives the following estimate:

As of December 2007, gross mark-to-market value of all derivatives was approximately 2.4 percent of notional amount outstanding. In addition, net credit exposure (after netting but before collateral) is 0.5 percent of notional amount outstanding. Applying these percentages to the total ISDA Market Survey notional amount outstanding of $531.2 trillion as of June 30, 2008, gross credit exposure before netting is estimated to be $12.7 trillion and credit exposure after netting, but before collateral, is estimated to be $2.7 trillion.

Banks are big players in this stuff. Citigroup has a total portfolio of swaps of various kinds of a sickening $36.8tn. Oops, maybe another deep breath. The largest part of these are interest rate swaps, but it has sold $1.57tn and bought $1.67tn in notional amounts of CDSs, according to the chart on page 40 of Citi’s financial statements. The total portfolio of swaps is about 6.9% of all swaps outstanding.

If we take Citi’s portfolio profile to be reasonably like the overall market, which is reasonable because it’s so big, we could guess that its exposure to loss is .5% of the notional value of its portfolio, which is $184bn after netting and before application of collateral. Let’s hope it’s only that bad.

Citi is required to evaluate its portfolio of derivatives using FASB rules. Citi provides a table of mark-to-market values for its trading portfolio. This gives values of $165bn and $149bn. There is much uncertainty here. For example, if Citi has hedged its protection sales with protection purchases on the same reference entities, it has to guess how much it can collect from its counterparties. It has to estimate where the losses on protection sales will occur, and where its bets on protection purchases will pay off. That can’t be estimated easily, and Citi will use very conservative estimates internally. The financial statements are confusing on this point, as hedging, netting, and collateral are all lumped together for the entire portfolio of derivatives, including the enormous interest swap portfolio.

In an earlier diary, I suggested we impose a punitive tax on naked CDSs. Now I see that taxing won’t work. Most of the players in this market look like Citi, with both purchases and sales of protection. If we tax gains, there won’t be enough money for losers to pay winners, and the problem will be worse. A lot of gamblers are buyers and sellers, not on the same reference creditors, perhaps, and they will need money from the wins to pay off the losses. Crushing the transactions will also affect the ability of the sellers of protection to pay off on hedging transactions, which is probably important. For example, GM has used some of these to protect its pension plan.

Whalen offers another solution: make them all unenforceable. He suggests that one way to do this is bankruptcy of the big protection sellers, like AIG. He points out what we already know, that a lot of the money we sent to AIG is now posted as collateral with its CDS counterparties. How will we feel about this, he asks:

Remember, only a small portion of these positions are actually hedging exposure in the form of the underlying securities. The rest are speculative, in some cases 10, 20 of 30 times the underlying basis. Yet the position taken by Treasury Secretary Paulson and implemented by Tim Geithner (and the Fed Board in Washington, to be fair) is that these leveraged wagers should be paid in full.

Whalen thinks we should pay the hedging transactions in full, and pay pennies to the gamblers. Theoretically, this could be done in bankruptcy. In Chapter 11, the goal is to create a Plan of Reorganization which changes the obligations of the company to its creditors so that the reorganized company can succeed. The plan of reorganization would put hedging CDSs into one class, and naked CDSs into another. The hedge class would be paid close to par. The other would get a penny on the dollar. The plan has to be approved after a hearing in the bankruptcy court, and the gambling crowd will either eat the problem, or emerge from the shadows to object, which will expose their shabby game to national derision.

There are several big problems with this. First, when a bankruptcy is filed, there is usually an automatic stay, which stops creditors from taking action to obtain property of the Debtor. 11 U.S.C. §560 says that this doesn’t apply to swaps. Other sections of the Bankruptcy Code do the same thing about other derivatives. The effect of these provisions is hard to predict, but they will make it difficult to stop counterparties from making a big fuss and probably limiting the ability of the company to protect itself and real creditors from the wolves.

Second, this solution doesn’t solve the problem of gamblers who need their winnings to pay their losses. We may be bankrupting a whole lot of people and companies, and we won’t know who until the bankruptcies start. Finally, bankruptcy won’t work with banks and insurance companies that wrote CDSs themselves, as opposed to holding companies or sister companies. Notice that Citibank has written a bunch of protection. When banks and insurance companies go bankrupt, they are administered by the FDIC or the State Insurance Commissioner. In either case, there is a statutory order for payment of creditors, and it isn’t likely that a court can do much about that order.

I’m beginning to think that we should just terminate naked credit default swaps outright. Declare them illegal and unenforceable. This is just the first step, as there are loads of problems, like, what happened to the premiums.

Unfortunately, right now, the only people trying to come up with an answer are some fringe guys running around with their hair on fire. Our Masters in financial world are too busy demanding ransom from the government; they can’t be expected to acknowledge the problem, let alone deal with it.

How to Find out the Hidden Secrets of the Bush Administration

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 1st, 2008 5:35 am by HL

How to Find out the Hidden Secrets of the Bush Administration
Treat Cheney’s offices like a crime scene, create a 9/12 Commission, and declassify the Bush papers — the public deserves to know.

Ex-Bush Aide Charged With Stealing Taxpayer Money

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 1st, 2008 5:34 am by HL

Ex-Bush Aide Charged With Stealing Taxpayer Money
A former White House aide has been charged with stealing thousands of dollars of federal money that was intended to promote democracy in Cuba, reports the Washington Examiner. Felipe Sixto was charged with stealing from the Center for a Free…

Will: Economic Crisis May Only Be ?A Financial Problem,? ?Rest Of Economy Is Doing Rather Well?

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 1st, 2008 5:32 am by HL

Will: Economic Crisis May Only Be ?A Financial Problem,? ?Rest Of Economy Is Doing Rather Well?
Today on ABC’s This Week roundtable, conservative columnist George Will claimed it is possible that the economy may only be suffering from a “financial problem” while the rest of the economy is performing “rather well”: WILL: All will be forgiven if things turn out well. And it’s just possible, Donna, that the economy is not going […]

Today on ABC’s This Week roundtable, conservative columnist George Will claimed it is possible that the economy may only be suffering from a “financial problem” while the rest of the economy is performing “rather well”:

WILL: All will be forgiven if things turn out well. And it’s just possible, Donna, that the economy is not going down the drain. 94, 95 percent of all mortgages in this country are being paid off on time. Ninety-four percent of those who want to work are working. This may be much more of a financial problem, that is, one sector, while the rest of the economy is doing rather well.

Watch it:

Will’s rosy assessment of the economy is deeply misguided. It’s clear that the financial industry is not the only sector of the economy in crisis mode. Some examples:

Construction Industry: The construction sector is “beset by one of the biggest drops in employment in the current economic downturn” and had an unemployment rate of 10.8 percent in October.

Labor Market
: The economy lost nearly 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of 2008, including 240,000 jobs in October. Unemployment is now at roughly 6.5 percent.

Housing Industry
: New home sales in September 2008 were 33.1. percent lower than the same time last year. “The median price for existing homes fell by 9.0% and prices for new homes by 9.1% during the same period.” One in 11 mortgages is delinquent or in foreclosure.

Auto Industry
: The auto industry just experienced another month of “record low sales.” Recently, Detroit automakers plead with Congress for a financial rescue package in order to avoid bankruptcy.

Will’s portrayals of the state of the economy have been abysmal. In June, he claimed that average Americans “are better off today than they were in 2000-2001.” In July, Will stuck up for former McCain adviser Phil Gramm’s “nation of whiners” comment, stating that Americans “are the crybabies of the western world. In fact, we have an extraordinarily low pain threshold.”

Biden Taps Advisers For Key Positions

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 1st, 2008 5:31 am by HL

Biden Taps Advisers For Key Positions
Vice President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. said yesterday that he has chosen a close adviser of more than 25 years as his counselor and has picked two other longtime political advisers for key posts in his office.