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Could Miami’s “Little Havana” Turn To Obama?

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on July 14th, 2008 4:38 am by HL

Could Miami’s “Little Havana” Turn To Obama?

Miami's large Cuban population, often referred to as “Little Havana” has always been predominantly Republican. Sunday's New York Times Magazine has a five page article questioning whether Cuban support in Miami might shift and vote Democratic in November. Primarily it examines some Democratic challenges to traditionally Republican House seats in Florida, But it also touches on the Presidential election.

Backstage, something very new is happening. Call it the Miami Spring, or Cuban-American glasnost. This community that has clung for decades to its certainties — about the island itself, about the role the exile community would play after the Castro brothers passed from the scene, about where Cuban-Americans should situate themselves in terms of U.S. domestic politics — is in ferment. This matters not only in terms of the destiny of the Cuban-American community itself but also in terms of the 2008 elections since, despite claims made on background by some of Barack Obama’s advisers, Florida is likely to play a pivotal role in determining whether Obama or John McCain becomes president, and the Cuban-American vote is likely to play its usual outsize role in deciding which candidate prevails in the state.

The Times recounts Obama's May speech in Miami seeking the Cuban vote. The Times reports:[More…]

Whether Obama really expected to make inroads into the Cuban-American vote with the speech is questionable. When Hillary Clinton was still in the race, she was far more circumspect, even if, off the record, her aides expressed views not that dissimilar from those of the liberal Cuban-Americans whom Obama was echoing. But that the presumptive Democratic nominee would think the speech worth making at all, in a community where he is the subject of a great deal of mistrust and hostility and in a state where he is not polling well against Senator McCain, exemplifies the change that is taking place in the Cuban-American community.

But, is it a change that translate into votes? The Cuban exile community remains fiscally conservative. That bodes well for McCain. And the younger generation is, according to a few sources, apolitical.

Regarding the 300,000 or more people who have come from Cuba to the United States in the past 10 years, Rivera presented a subtle picture. “Anecdotally,” he told me, “it’s not that the post-1994 generation is pro-Castro, but instead that they think politics ruined their lives in Cuba, and so they are deeply apolitical. Whatever my Democratic friends may be telling themselves, whatever Raul [Martinez] and Joe [Garcia] may be hoping, they’re not ready to be energized politically.” There is little doubt that antipolitics is the strongest form of politics among these recent arrivals. Unlike earlier generations of exiles, most are not mourning the non-Communist Cuba that was and might have been. For them, Communism is a fact of life from childhood, not something alien — however much most may detest the regime and be glad to have made their way to the U.S. And while most would probably say they value the freedoms of the United States, there is little doubt that many, if not most, left for economic and family reasons.

One thing about Obama, he doesn't hesitate to go after voting blocks that are difficult for him to win over, whether it be evangelicals or Cubans. I just hope he makes the same concerted outreach to rural, working class voters. There are so many more of them and it's their votes in November that could be the deciding factor in whether we get a Democractic or Republican president.

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