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Will Pro-Choice Women Vote For McCain?

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on May 28th, 2008 4:40 am by HL

Will Pro-Choice Women Vote For McCain?
Abortion, I’m sad to say — as someone who will never pull the lever for an anti-choice candidate of any stripe — is just not going to be that meaningful a metric in 2008. Good on Arianna for getting the message out about McCain, because the Planned Parenthood poll indicates that when people are aware of what a pig he is on choice, it starts to chip away at their willingness to support him But for those looking to a position on choice to keep women in the Democratic tent, there just isn’t a compelling argument that this issue alone will keep women from defecting to McCain.

Blue America candidate Martin Heinrich is over at Crooks & Liars chatting.  Stop by and say “hi” — jh

Following up on my post from yesterday on John McCain’s bid for Hillary Clinton’s female voters, I see my good friend Arianna Huffington has finally joined the ranks of pro-choice bloggers and writes about a promising poll by Planned Parenthood. The poll concludes that many of McCain’s supporters in swing states are pro-choice, and don’t realize what a reactionary barbarian he is when it comes to a woman’s right to control her own body.

People in our comments thread were also quick to note that no woman who really cares about choice could vote for a President who might put another Alito on the bench. Well, people such as myself who are die-hard pro-choice voters might wish that were true, but there really isn’t any statistical proof to back up the conclusion that John McCain’s Neanderthal position on choice is going to hurt him significantly in November.

A recent nation wide Gallup poll indicates that only 13% of those polled say that a candidate “must share your views” with regard to abortion; 49% said it was “just one of many important factors,” while 37% said it was “not a major issue” and 2% had “no opinion.”

Here’s Newsweek:

McCain aides say his hard line on abortion isn’t necessarily a disadvantage among many women. Though about 60 percent agree in general with Roe, that doesn’t mean they vote based on a candidate’s position on abortion. The McCain camp believes Hillary backers—working-class white women and independents, in particular—could migrate to McCain rather than to Obama. A Planned Parenthood poll of women voters in 16 battleground states earlier this year showed 49 percent of McCain’s supporters called themselves pro-choice and said they support Roe.

What do women care about? Well, that is the eternal question, isn’t it. From a May 14 Quinnipiac poll:

Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year?

Issue Women
Terrorism 5%
War in Iraq 22%
The economy 46%
Illegal immigration 6%
Health care 14%
Something else (Vol) 4%
DK/NA 2%

“A woman’s right to choose” doesn’t even chart.

McCain’s big vulnerability among women is the economy. The Quinipiac poll also states that 77% of women disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy, and Progressive Media demonstrates that in 2008 John McCain voted with Bush 100% of the time. In 2007, he voted with him 95% of the time. If Obama can articulate a meaningful vision of how he’ll handle the economy, it’s going to be a lot more persuasive to female voters at this point in time.

Choice is — or should be — a core Democratic value. It’s critical for party leaders to be vocal in their support of it, because the people who really care about it really care about it and they’re the activists who get stuff done. And good on Arianna for getting the message out about McCain, because the Planned Parenthood poll indicates that when people are aware of what a pig he is on choice, it starts to chip away at their willingness to support him. But for those looking to a position on choice to keep women in the Democratic tent, there just isn’t a compelling argument that this issue alone will prevent women from defecting to McCain.

All this is by way of reinforcing my central thesis, which I still stick by — Hillary Clinton’s exit from the stage needs to be carefully managed, and a bum’s rush may have undesirable consequences. Those looking to see her burned at the stake may be firmly convinced of their righteousness, but it’s questionable whether this is in the best interest of a November victory for Obama.

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