What the Generic Ballot Tells Us About a GOP Wave
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on September 7th, 2014 11:08 pm by HL
What the Generic Ballot Tells Us About a GOP Wave
Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics
Last week, I considered the question of whether a Republican wave was forthcoming in 2014, using Senate races as the metric. One of the more common objections to the idea of a Republican wave was the Democrats’ standing in the generic ballot. As of today, Democrats lead by 0.5 percent. This contrasts with this point in 2010, when Republicans led by 5.3 points. In order to understand why I don’t find this all that interesting, it is worth fleshing out my meta-view of this election. I can emphatically say: It’s not certain that a big Republican wave is coming. Rather, the data…