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The State of the States: Obama’s Odds Still Over 70%

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on October 26th, 2012 11:08 pm by HL

The State of the States: Obama’s Odds Still Over 70%
Nate Silver, NYT
Thursday was a busy day for the polls, with some bright spots for each candidate. But it made clear that Barack Obama maintains a narrow lead in the polling averages in states that would get him to 270 electoral votes. Mr. Obama also remains roughly tied in the polls in two other states, Colorado and Virginia, that could serve as second lines of defense for him if he were to lose a state like Ohio.The day featured the release of 10 national polls, but there was little in the way of a consistent pattern in them. On average, the polls showed a tied race. Furthermore, among the nine polls that…

Parity Politics and the Ripple Election
Lou Cannon, RealClearPolitics
In the final years of the 20th century and the first 19 months of this one, the United States was, in the words of demographer Michael Barone, politically “divided down the middle.”President Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996 with 49.2 percent of the vote. George W. Bush and Al Gore each received slightly more than 48 percent of the vote in 2000, with Gore winning the popular vote and Bush the presidency after a controversial Supreme Court decision. In three consecutive congressional elections beginning in 1996, the winning Republicans received between 48 and 49 percent and held…

Obama 2nd Term ‘Plan’ an Empty Stage Prop

Moderate Mitt Wouldn’t Make It Past Jan. 20
Jonathan Alter, Bloomberg
You have to hand it to Mitt Romneyand his team. Starting in the first debate, he pivoted almosteffortlessly to the center, which is where elections are won. Ifhe beats President Barack Obama, it will be because he Etch-A-Sketched his earlier positions and convinced enough people thathe would be a moderate president.Unfortunately, he has little chance of governing that way.We don't know which Romney will show up on a given day, but wesure know which Republican Party would be in charge inWashington every minute. The Republicans have become the mostextreme major political party in…

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