Not an Anti-Incumbent Year
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on December 22nd, 2011 5:38 am by HL
Not an Anti-Incumbent Year
Alan Abramowitz doesn’t see large numbers of incumbents in both parties losing their seats next November as a result of the high level of public dissatisfaction with Congress.
“Based on the historical record we can confidently predict that if a large number of incumbents lose their seats next November, it will be because 2012 is a wave election and that almost all of the defeated incumbents will come from the party on the losing side of the wave.”
Can Gingrich Afford to Stay Positive?
As Newt Gingrich slides in the polls amid an onslaught of negative ads and comments by his opponents in the Republican presidential primary, The Hill looks at Gingrich’s challenge: remain positive or fight fire with fire.
“In a way, running a positive campaign was almost a necessity for Gingrich. He’s so very vulnerable to attacks — from his support for an individual healthcare mandate to his consulting work to his personal infidelities — that his best shot at winning was always in an environment free from acrimony and negativity… But by promising to stay positive, he gives up the opportunity to fight back, and thus, when he does, it’s immediately called hypocritical. In short, Gingrich is fighting with a hand tied behind his back — one he’s bound himself… In order to staunch the bleeding, Gingrich might have to openly discard the promise of positivity and make someone else bleed, too.”
Walker’s Advantage in a Recall Election
As the petition to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) nears the necessary number of signatures to trigger a recall election, The Hotline looks at the factors that give Walker and Republicans plenty of hope.
“Walker announced that he had raised $5.1 million dollars during the latest fundraising period, finishing with a cool $3 million in the bank. That’s a huge haul. What’s more…nearly half of the money came from out of state… There is no consensus challenger against Walker. Many Democrats were hopeful earlier this year that Russ Feingold, the former senator and favorite of liberals might make a bid. But he’s said he is not running… Walker has been running TV ads, staffing up with experienced hands and raising money. He’s not simply sitting back and waiting to see if a recall will be triggered. His operation is moving ahead with the expectation that an election will take place.”
