Handicapping the 2012 Election
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on November 3rd, 2011 4:37 am by HL
Handicapping the 2012 Election
Nate Silver develops a forecasting model for the 2012 presidential election and runs the numbers:
“Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.”
“With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.”
Texas Judge Confirms Video of Him Beating Daughter
“A Texas judge faces a police investigation and judicial probe after a video showing him beating his then-16-year-old disabled daughter was posted on the Internet,” CNN reports.
“The graphic video drew international outrage after it was posted by a woman who said she was the victim of the beating seven years ago and that her parents — including her father, Aransas County, Texas, Court-At-Law Judge William Adams (R) — were the ones seen beating and cursing at her in the video.”
Adams confirmed the video’s authenticity to KXTV: “She’s mad because I’ve ordered her to bring the car back, in a nutshell, but yeah that’s me, I lost my temper. Her mother was there, she wasn’t hurt.. it was a long time ago.. I really don’t want to get into this right now because as you can see my life’s been made very difficult over this child.”
Adams is up for re-election in three years.
