Is There a Magic Number?
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on July 7th, 2011 4:45 am by HL
Is There a Magic Number?
Larry Sabato looks at unemployment and economic growth rates as measures to forecast presidential elections but finds them both lacking.
“If you insist on looking at just one number for an incumbent president seeking reelection, it is probably best to choose presidential popularity — the answer to the question, ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the job President X is doing?’ This is a marvelous summary statistic, because it forces voters to take all the issues of the day into account, projecting their own issue priorities onto the president. When reliable polls show the proportion approving of presidential job performance is 50% or above, the incumbent is highly likely to win. The further the number falls below 50%, the less likely the incumbent is to get his second term.”
Bachmann Continues Strong Iowa Rollout
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) continues her strong efforts to win the Iowa caucuses with a new ad out today stressing her ties to the state and conservative bona fides.
Maggie Haberman: “The commercial is upbeat, with a strumming guitar overlay as Bachmann speaks. The spot is going up just as Bachmann is introducing herself to Iowa voters, who already put her in a statistical tie for first place in a recent Des Moines Register poll. She is making a serious push to win the Ames Straw Poll next month, and even some Democrats are taking note that she is running a professional campaign so far, with crisp visuals at her stump stops following an effective rollout.”
Movement Seen in Debt Limit Talks
Congressional leaders meet with President Obama at the White House later this morning to discuss a deal to cut spending, raise revenues and increase the nation’s debt limit.
Washington Post: “President Obama is pressing congressional leaders to consider a far-reaching debt-reduction plan that would force Democrats to accept major changes to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for Republican support for fresh tax revenue… Obama plans to argue that a rare consensus has emerged about the size and scope of the nation’s budget problems and that policymakers should seize the moment to take dramatic action.”
Wall Street Journal: “In a sign that both sides see the opportunity for a fundamental revamp of the U.S. budget, Messrs. Obama and Boehner have recently discussed an option that includes tying a deficit package to a broad tax overhaul, people familiar with the talks say.”
New York Times: “The intensifying negotiations between the president and the speaker have Congressional Democrats growing anxious, worried they will be asked to accept a deal that is too heavily tilted toward Republican efforts and produces too little new revenue relative to the magnitude of the cuts.”
Quote of the Day
“I swear every time Mitt Romney opens his mouth I think he’s running against me.”
— Rush Limbaugh, speaking on his talk radio show, criticizing Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney for “running against the Tea Party.”
