Forecast Suggests GOP Senate Majority
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on May 5th, 2011 4:38 am by HL
Forecast Suggests GOP Senate Majority
Harry Enten forecasts Democrats “are in great danger of losing their Senate majority in 2012. History is against them maintaining control of the Senate.”
His model — which uses national variables and not seat-by-seat projections — finds Democrats will win only 16 of their 23 seats up for re-election next year. If correct, this loss of seven seats would flip the Senate to the Republicans.
Congress Nears Deal on Debt Limit
The White House and Republican leaders “are discussing a deal that would enact strict deficit targets and some spending cuts to win Republican votes for lifting the ceiling on how much the federal government can borrow,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The deal would defer contentious decisions about Medicare, Medicaid and taxes until after the 2012 elections. If such an agreement were reached, it would allow both sides to assure financial markets and the public of their commitment to reducing the deficit and then use next year’s campaign to lay out their competing visions for the future of major government programs.”
Said Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI): “We’re not going to get a grand slam agreement. We’re not going to get a big, comprehensive agreement, because of the political parameters. My hope at this moment is to get a single or a double.”
Why Bush Isn’t Going to Ground Zero
George W. Bush won’t be at Ground Zero with President Obama today “in part because he feels his team is getting short shrift in the decade-long manhunt for Osama Bin Laden,” the New York Daily News reports.
Said a highly-placed source: “He viewed this as an Obama victory lap. He doesn’t feel personally snubbed and appreciates the invitation, but Obama’s claiming all the credit and a lot of other people deserve some of it.”
Associates familiar with his thinking say Bush does not believe Obama or his handlers wanted to exploit his presence. But the tag-team idea “was for the benefit of Obama, and Obama withheld credit from people Bush believes deserved it,” a source said.
Republicans Hold First Debate
“Normally, the first debate of the presidential primary season serves as a starting gun. The one that will take place on Thursday night could sound more like a distress call,” the Washington Post reports.
“With the strongest possible contenders holding back — not just from debating, but also from gearing up their campaign operations — a queasiness is setting in among Republicans about whether their field will be strong enough to produce a standard-bearer who can beat an incumbent.”
