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Minnesota Could Disrupt Primary Calendar

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on March 1st, 2011 5:33 am by HL

Minnesota Could Disrupt Primary Calendar
Ben Smith reports that Minnesota may throw the entire 2012 primary calendar into disarray and could “open the door to a scramble that unravels both parties’ efforts to kick the election season off with the February 6 Iowa Caucuses.”

“Minnesota law establishes February 7, one day after Iowa, as the default date for that state’s caucuses. The date can only be changed with the consent of both political parties. The parties must, according to the statute, agree to change the date ‘no later than March 1 of each odd-numbered year.'”

“Whether Minnesota’s decision is, in fact, a big deal will depend on two things: Whether Iowa is comfortable with the event, and whether other states — which both parties are jointly trying to herd into a February start, and many of whom will need to pass legislation to move their primary dates — take Minnesota as an excuse to blow up the calendar. The RNC is already struggling to persuade Florida’s Republican leaders to fall into line.”

Edwards Indictment Looms
John Edwards has been “lying low” recently, according to the New York Times, but that won’t last as “a federal grand jury in Raleigh could soon hand up an indictment against him in a case centering on campaign finance practices.”

“If Mr. Edwards is charged in the federal case, he could take a number of tacks, say people connected to the case. Striking a deal might be the best option if the charges are misdemeanors. If he faces felony charges, many believe that Mr. Edwards, known as an exceptionally good trial lawyer who is protective of his law degree, would fight them.”

The Importance of the Union Vote for Democrats
Nate Silver finds that union voters and the union-household voters improved President Obama’s margin over Sen. John McCain in 2008 by approximately 4.8%.

He concludes: “Republican efforts to decrease the influence of unions — while potentially worthwhile to their electoral prospects in the long-term — could contribute to a backlash in the near-term, making union members even more likely to vote Democratic and even more likely to turn out. If, for instance, the share of union households voting for Democrats was not 60 percent but closer to 70 percent, Republicans would have difficulty winning presidential elections for a couple of cycles until the number of union voters diminished further.”

Public Backs Unions Over Walker
A new Pew Research poll finds that by a modest margin, more say they back Wisconsin’s public employee unions rather than Gov. Scott Walker (R) in their continuing dispute over collective bargaining rights.

Key finding: 42% say they side more with the public employee unions, while 31% say they side more with the governor.

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