Rasmussen Was Biased
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on November 3rd, 2010 4:41 am by HL
Rasmussen Was Biased
Nate Silver did a quick check on the accuracy of polls from Rasmussen Reports, which came under heavy criticism this year because its polls showed a strong lean toward Republican candidates.
“Indeed, Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.”
Welcome to Gridlock
Ezra Klein: “From the perspective of actually getting anything done in the next two years, there was perhaps no worse outcome. Republicans don’t fully control Congress, so they don’t have enough power to be blamed for legislative outcomes. But Democrats don’t control the House and they don’t have a near-filibuster proof majority in the Senate, so they can’t pass legislation. Republicans, in other words, are not left with the burden of governance, and Democrats are not left with the power to govern. Republicans don’t have to be responsible, and Democrats can’t do it for them.”
“For the time being, this means that the gains of Obama’s first two years are probably safe. Health-care repeal will not pass the Senate, and if Republicans attempt to defund the program, it will be the House acting on its own — a less tenable position than the Congress acting against the executive. It is also difficult to see major new stimulus programs — for instance, a payroll-tax holiday — finding backers in Congress, as Republicans will not be able to take full credit for them. This will be, instead, a time of implementation for the White House, oversight for the House, and paralysis for the Senate.”
Republicans Ride Wave Back to Power in House
Washington Post: “Just four years after surrendering power, Republicans recaptured control of the House and made gains in the Senate on Tuesday night, in a major rebuff of President Obama and the Democrats by an electorate worried about the economy and the size of the government.”
New York Times: “A Republican resurgence, propelled by deep economic worries and a forceful opposition to the Democratic agenda of health care and government spending, delivered defeats to House Democrats from the Northeast to the South and across the Midwest. The tide swept aside dozens of lawmakers, regardless of their seniority or their voting records, upending the balance of power for the second half of Mr. Obama’s term.”
Wall Street Journal: “Republicans won control of the House of Representatives as voters dealt a stiff rebuke to President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party in a historic wave that swept the GOP to power in states and districts across the country.”
Politico: “American voters Tuesday violently unraveled the complex map of America President Barack Obama proudly displayed after his 2008 victory, driving Democrats from rural and suburban districts, from virtually the entire South and unseating a generation of powerful, centrist Democratic legislators.”
Murkowski Nears Write-in Victory
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has “a good chance to become only the second candidate to run a successful write-in campaign for the U.S. Senate in the nation’s history,” the Anchorage Daily News reports.
Preliminary results show that “about 40% of the voters had filled in the write-in oval on their ballot… But it won’t be clear for weeks at least how many of the voters wrote in Murkowski’s name, and how many did it properly enough to be counted.”
Joe Miller (R), “who ran on a tea party platform with the backing of former Gov. Sarah Palin, was pulling in 35% of the vote. Miller was followed by Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, who had about 24% of the vote.”
