Quote of the Day
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on July 19th, 2010 4:43 am by HL
Quote of the Day
“I think a lot of people are looking back with more fondness on President Bush’s administration, and I think history will treat him well.”
— Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), in an interview on C-SPAN.
Republican Outlook Improves in Senate Races
Nate Silver‘s latest forecast suggests Democrats will retain control of the Senate next year but there is an improvement in the GOP’s standing in recent weeks.
“The model gives Republicans a 15% chance of taking over the Senate if Charlie Crist caucuses with them, up significantly from 6% three weeks ago. If Crist does not caucus with them, their chances of a takeover are 11%. However, the model does not account for the contingency that someone like Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson could decide to switch parties, which makes their chances slightly better than we suggest here.”
In contrast, Democrats’ chances “of gaining a net of one or more seat and re-claiming a 60-seat majority are 7%, down from 12% three weeks ago. If they could persuade Charlie Crist to caucus with them, however, their chances would improve to 10%.”
Important note: Rasmussen now accounts for about 55% of the polls used in the model.
