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What to Watch in Kentucky

Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on May 18th, 2010 4:43 am by HL

What to Watch in Kentucky
In Kentucky, Jack Conway (D) and Dan Mongiardo (D) face off in what has turned out to be a very close Democratic Senate primary. Polls close across the state by 7 pm ET.

1. Jack Conway is from Louisville and is expected to do quite well there. Louisville has a tendency to report its results earlier in the evening, and Conway should lead early in the count. Dan Mongiardo is counting on a strong performance in the rural areas of Kentucky and should be able to close the gap with Conway as those results come in. If Mongiardo leads with 50% of the precincts reporting, he’ll likely win.

2. Will voters actually pull the lever for Darlene Price? This former US customs drug agent and Democratic candidate for US Senate has been pulling about 5% in recent polls. In polls, her vote tends to be among Conway’s constituency of liberals and females. If the support Price falters at the polls, Conway is likely to be the beneficiary and it may put him over the top.

3. Does anybody actually show-up? Most of the media attention in Kentucky (and nationally) has been focused on the Republican Senatorial primary between likely winner Rand Paul and Trey Grayson. The Secretary of State, who happens to be Trey Grayson, predicts only a 30% turnout statewide. Conway has vastly outspent Mongiardo on television and is likely to benefit from a large turnout. If more than 500,000 votes are cast statewide in the Democratic primary, Conway is likely to win.

— Guest contributor Harry Enten writes Margin of Error and is an intern for Pollster.com.

What to Watch in Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) faces a tough primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) for the Democratic Senate nomination. Polls close at 8 pm ET.

1. The early returns will come from Philadelphia where Specter is widely seen as having an advantage. Specter started his political career as Philly’s district attorney and is counting on a large turnout among African-Americans. While polling differs on how well Specter and Sestak are doing in Philadelphia, Specter better jump out to a large lead early or his night will likely be a long one.

2. Speaking of the black vote, Specter’s fate may be tied to Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Anthony Williams. Williams, who is African-American, has, like Specter, been endorsed by most of the major politicians and political organizations in Philadelphia. While Williams is likely to lose to front-runner Dan Onorato, a strong Williams performance (20%+ statewide) probably indicates a high African-American turnout and is good for Specter.

3. Suffolk University pollsters have pegged York County as the “bellwether” county. That is, the county most likely to predict the results statewide. While Suffolk University does not always get the results right, the winner of their chosen bellwether county almost always wins statewide.

— Guest contributor Harry Enten writes Margin of Error and is an intern for Pollster.com.

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