Low Turnout Didn’t Cause Democratic Losses
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on November 9th, 2009 5:40 am by HL
Low Turnout Didn’t Cause Democratic Losses
Charles Franklin: “The shifts in outcomes between the 2008 presidential and 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia were driven far more by shifts in voting preferences among groups than by changes in turnout across those groups. Only age groups show consistently substantial changes in relative share of the electorate. Vote preference, in comparison, shows quite large shifts between election years. While one narrative of the 2009 election was changing turnout motivation, this turns out to be substantially false. Instead, changes in candidate preference drove the Republican wins in both New Jersey and Virginia.”
