How To Read A Poll: Part X
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on June 12th, 2008 4:35 am by HL
The NBC/WSJ Poll that has Obama leading McCain 47-41, also has a lesson in reading a poll. Let’s look at this excerpt from the poll:
Twenty-two percent say that adding Clinton as Obama’s vice presidential running mate makes them more likely to vote for Obama in November; 21 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for him; and 55 percent say it makes no difference.
Hmmm. That does not sound very good. Sounds like Clinton is a wash at best. Ahh, but let’s learn about how to read a poll. What is the real effect?
An Obama-Clinton ticket defeats a GOP one of McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by nine points, 51-42 percent.
Ahhh. Clinton pushes Obama over the magic 50% mark, up 4 to 51 from 47. That is called winning folks. It just goes to show you how meaningless some poll questions can be. And the more likely/less likely question is one of the most useless of all.
This is now a consistent finding – Clinton puts Obama over the top, adding 3-5 points to the ticket. It is time for a reality check on this — Obama can put the election away with his VP pick – by choosing Hillary Clinton.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
