Not a Bump
Posted in Main Blog (All Posts) on June 11th, 2008 4:33 am by HL
Some have noticed Obama’s rise in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls (which, as I’ve noted before, are designed to track momentum shifts, not give solid snapshots of where the public stands), and are calling it a post-nomination “bump.”
But it’s not a bump in the traditional sense.
Candidates typically get a bump after their party’s convention because polls follow wall-to-wall positive media coverage. Similarly, the end of the primary process usually result in a round of triumphant stories. These bumps often fade, at least partially, once media coverage becomes mixed.
But a traditional burst of positive media didn’t really happen in this case.
Positive Obama stories have been overshadowed by stories about the end of Clinton’s campaign. Republican attacks have kept up a steady pace. And the whole dragged out thing had an anti-climatic air.
More likely, the “bump” is composed on Clinton supporters feeling more comfortable expressing support for Obama in a trial heat with McCain.
That’s not a “bump” that would quickly fade, but a “correction” that begins to cycle out intra-party friction and better reflects the current baseline of support.
The McCain folks are hyping how big Obama’s bump would be. But I wouldn’t necessarily expect a “correction” to be of the size of a post-convention bounce. Remember, Obama was already leading in most May polls anyway.
Of course, we’ll know more once we have a round of polls taken after Clinton’s concession speech. I believe a NBC/WSJ is slated for tomorrow…